Escalation watch: Russia issues warning as UK and EU ramp up war rhetoric

Welcome to RT’s live coverage of the wave of escalation spreading through political and media circles across Western Europe. You join us on Monday afternoon, and despite the fact that we’ve seen little concrete information about the apparent terror plot at RAF Fairford yesterday, British officials and talking heads have already put their own spin on events.

Speaking at a Labour Party conference Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband described the incident as an example of “the threats our country faces,” and called on the public to “roll up our sleeves” and “fight for our values.” Miliband did not assign blame for the supposed attack plot, but still insisted that there would be a “fight” ahead.

On Sky News, Elizabeth Braw – a ‘security expert’ at the NATO-funded Atlantic Council – warned that “conflict is coming to the UK.” 

“It’s not going to be just Iran. We already know that Russia is commissioning people to carry out attacks in the UK,” she claimed. Iran has denied any role in the Fairford ‘plot’, and there is no evidence that Russia has carried out, or paid anyone else to carry out “attacks” in the UK.

The five men arrested at RAF Fairford have been released on bail, but are still under investigation, counterterror police chief Laurence Taylor has said. 

The decision suggests that police didn’t find enough evidence to extend their detention, but Taylor insisted that “they absolutely remain under investigation.”

Nor has Taylor shut down speculation about foreign involvement. “We are considering this from every possible angle,” he said, “including that this may be activity committed by proxies, or individuals either knowingly or unknowingly, working on behalf of a foreign state.”

READ MORE: Five Britons probed over suspected bomb plot outside US air base

It’s worth taking a moment to look at what exactly happened at RAF Fairford, a Royal Air Force base used solely by the US Air Force.

What we know for certain is that five men, described by counter-terror police as residents of London, were arrested near the base on Sunday morning, after a local farmer alerted authorities to three suspicious vans parked in the area. 

Everything else is unclear. The farmer told Sky News that it took almost six hours for police to respond to her calls, and that she saw at least seven other men escape into nearby woodland. Multiple British media outlets have said that the operation was not “intelligence-led,” meaning the men were not under surveillance, but US President Donald Trump suggested that American and British agents had the five men “under review for a long time.”

Bomb squad robots searched the three vans, but it is unclear whether any explosives were found. Further information about the suspects, including where they are being detained, is being kept under wraps. According to a photograph published by the BBC, some of the men appear to be Middle Eastern or north African in origin. 

Although Prime Minister Andy Burnham has urged the public “not to speculate while the authorities establish the full facts,” several media outlets and analysts have fingered Iran as the chief suspect. Tehran has said that it “categorically rejects and strongly condemns the recent unfounded and malicious speculations.”

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Britain’s elites want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining

Fairford is dominating the headlines today, but the media’s response is not happening in a vacuum. The rampant speculation – particularly Sky News’ security expert mentioning Iran and Russia in connection with the incident – comes after weeks of panic-mongering in the UK and mainland Europe, all of it centered around the supposed threat of a Russian attack. 

If you’re just catching up, RT columnist Tarik Cyril Amar broke down the “absurdities, inconsistencies, and plain silliness” of the war rhetoric in an op-ed last week, concluding that Britain’s “insane and malevolent” elites “want you ready to die for a war they keep imagining.” 

The last sentence is key: Russia has repeatedly declared that it has no intention of or interest in a war with the UK. The threat remains imaginary.

Burnham is currently chairing a COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Rooms) meeting to discuss the RAF Fairford incident. Speaking to reporters earlier this afternoon, the prime minister said that the meeting would “make sure we have the full picture, the full situation very clearly in our sights and so maybe we’ll say more about that later today.”

On social media, some alternate explanations have begun to emerge, including the theory that the suspects were common criminals attempting to steal agricultural diesel from farmers in the area.

This theory would explain the plastic drums visible in aerial footage of the vans, and the surprise decision to grant the men bail. It’s just a theory for now, but it’s a potentially embarrassing one for Milliband, Braw, and the other politicians and experts who jumped straight to describing the incident as an “attack.”

Even before they took to the airwaves this morning, Sky News’ analysts had the public primed to view the Fairford incident as a terror plot. Over five nights last week, ‘The Wargame’ treated viewers to a “constructed documentary” depiction of a Russian attack on the UK, which began with the assassination of two RAF officers and the sinking of a British vessel by a Russian submarine.

A cast of British politicians and military chiefs then decide, in front of a live audience, whether to use nuclear weapons against Russia. Their decision is never revealed.

Defense Secretary Wes Streeting praised the show for boosting public support for increased military spending. At a preview screening in London, Streeting thanked its producers for writing his “spending review submission.”

‘The Wargame’ is not the first series of its kind, or even of its name. Back in 1965, the BBC commissioned a “pseudo-documentary” called ‘The War Game’, which depicted an all-out nuclear war between the UK and Soviet Union. Unlike Sky News’ series, the 1965 production juxtaposed calls for war from public figures with the bleak aftermath of a nuclear attack – mass deaths, starvation, and the breakdown of law and order.

It was never aired, with the BBC determining that it would be “too horrifying for the medium of broadcasting.” 

Sky showed no such restraint, with its series seemingly designed to turn dovish politicians into Russia hawks, and manufacture consent for the kind of military spending hikes that make the worst-case-scenario depicted in 1965 more likely.

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NATO article 5 is not what you think it is

Oftentimes, the most bellicose Western politicians and analysts discuss war with Russia under the assumption that all 32 NATO member states would automatically be involved. This, Russian International Affairs Council President Dmitry Trenin wrote for RT on Sunday, is a “myth.” 

Article 5 of the 1949 Washington Treaty was carefully written in order to limit the US’ exposure to a potential nuclear war in Europe. It requires each member only “to take such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area” in the event of a conflict.

In ‘The Wargame’, the US does not intervene, leaving the UK to fight a nuclear war with Russia minus 88% of NATO’s nuclear arsenal. That some of the series’ participants still consider such a war winnable illustrates just how divorced from reality its premise really is. 

Back in Fairford, multiple UK media outlets are reporting that no “viable explosives” were found in any of the three vans. That’s another point for the ‘diesel theft’ theorists, and directly contradicts The Guardian, which claimed that “armed officers found explosives in three vans.”

The Guardian would be due a lecture on the dangers of spreading “disinformation,” if senior officials and its media competitors hadn’t jumped on the same bandwagon.

Despite the fact that no explosives were found and all five suspects were released on bail, British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is still trying to spin the incident as a counterterrorism victory and milk it for propaganda value.

”Thanks to the Army’s explosive ordinance disposal team, the scene is now safe,” Mahmood said at the Labour Party’s conference, omitting the fact that there was apparently no ordinance to dispose of.

“To all those who mean us harm and plot violence on our soil, let this be a reminder: you will never defeat us,” she added.

There is still no evidence that anyone plotted violence, and every new development this afternoon has suggested that the incident was not terror-related or connected with any foreign nation or group.